Brazil’s Embraer confirms full-year forecast, Q3 deliveries disappoint

Brazilian planemaker Embraer SA (EMBR3.SA) on Monday reported a 10% increase in third-quarter aircraft deliveries from a year earlier and reaffirmed its full-year forecast, but the deliveries came below some projections, pushing its shares down.

Embraer delivered 33 jets in the three months to September, up from 30 in the year-ago period. That, however, fell below some projections. JPMorgan analysts, who were expecting a delivery of 51 aircraft, said Embraer had “another weak quarter.”

Santander had a more conservative forecast of 36 aircraft and noted some improvement in volumes, though it said supply chain constraints might still pose a challenge ahead.

Embraer’s Sao Paulo-traded sharer dropped more than 3.5% in early trade, making it one of the top losers on Brazil’s Bovespa stock index (.BVSP), which was down 1.7%.

Embraer said in a securities filing that quarterly deliveries included 10 commercial aircraft and 23 executive jets, up from nine and 21, respectively, in the same period of 2021.

At the end of the quarter, the company’s firm order backlog stood at $17.8 billion, up 6% on the year and unchanged from the previous quarter, which was its highest in four years.

The latest backlog data included a firm order for six E195-E2 jets signed with Oman’s low-cost carrier SalamAir in October. Embraer had also agreed on a deal with Canada’s Porter Airlines for 20 aircraft earlier this year.

The Brazilian company reaffirmed its full-year deliveries forecast of 100 to 110 executive jets and 60 to 70 commercial jets.

Some investors and analysts said Embraer risked missing its guidance given supply chain strains, but chief executive Francisco Gomes Neto said last quarter the company was “cautiously optimistic” the disruptions wouldn’t derail its outlook.

Santander noted though that investors remained skeptical on the normalization of the supply chain and said Embraer needed to deliver 33-43 commercial aircraft and 48-58 business jets in the fourth quarter to meet its 2022 outlook.

“Comparing to historical deliveries, the low of the guidance range seems achievable for both divisions,” Santander said. “However, the main challenge will be delivering those volumes with a supply chain that is not fully normalized yet.”